In the Year of the Ox (1985), Steve Jobs made strangely accurate predictions about the future of technology.
36 years ago, Apple founder Steve Jobs was still trying to convince people of the benefits of personal computers. “The computer is the most amazing tool we have ever seen,” Jobs said in an interview in the year of the Ox (1985).
At that time, computers were very expensive and difficult to use. Still, Jobs had a clear vision of Apple’s future. Here are four of his famous predictions from 1985, three of which have come true.
These PC models are mainly used in businesses and schools. (Photo: Apple Insider).
By 1985, Apple had released four computers: Apple I (1976), Apple II (1977), Lisa (1983) and Macintosh (1984). These PC models are mainly used in businesses and schools.
“You can actually prepare documents faster with better quality, and you can multitask to increase productivity,” explains Jobs. He believes that computers will free people from everyday tasks.
However, people often do not use computers in their free time. At the time, Jobs described the home computer idea as more of a “conceptual market” than a “real market”.
“The main reason to have a computer in your home is if you want to run a business from home or want to use educational software for yourself or your kids,” Jobs said. “This will change. Computers will become essential tools in most homes.”
According to US Census Bureau data, only 8% of American households owned a computer in 1984. In 2000, 51% owned a computer, and by 2015, that number had grown to 79%.
According to a 2017 CNBC poll, the average American household owns two Apple products. Nowadays, users spend a lot of their free time using computers, as well as other technological devices.
Jobs guessed that computers would become more useful beyond the business purpose of connecting. (Photo: Fortune).
Jobs predicts that what will make computers more useful beyond business is connectivity. “The most compelling reason for most people to buy a home computer is to link it to a national media network,” he said.
The prediction was made by the Apple founder four years ago, when Tim Berners-Lee introduced the World Wide Web.
According to the New York Times, Berners-Lee wrote the first web editor and web browser in his office at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN). At the end of 1990, the first website went online.
The idea of creating a long-distance communication network for computers appeared decades ago, in the ARPANET research project funded by the US military. ARPANET became the foundation for the modern Internet when engineers Vint Cerf and Bob Kahn developed the TC/IP networking standard. ARPANET switched to TC/IP standard in 1983, paving the way for the birth of the global network later.
In today’s Internet of Things world, everything from computers, smartphones, vacuum cleaners to light switches is connected to the Internet. Analyst firm McKinsey Global Institute forecasts that the trend of using smart devices will bring the economy about $ 3.9 trillion to $ 11.1 trillion by 2025.
Jobs always defended his point of view with the computer mouse. (Photo: CNBC).
In the past, computers didn’t always work with a mouse. Before Apple introduced the Lisa and Macintosh with a mouse and graphical interface, most personal computers on the market at the time needed keyboard-enterable command instructions.
Jobs always defended his point of view with the computer mouse. “If I wanted to remind you of a shirt stain, I wouldn’t do it with language like: ‘There’s a stain on your shirt, 14cm below the collar and 3cm to the left of the buttonhole. ‘” he explained. “If you have a place – ‘There’ [Jobs pointing], I’ll point right there. Pointing is a metaphorical language we all know,” he explained.
“Performing all functions – such as cutting and pasting – with the mouse is much faster. It’s not only easier to use, it’s also more efficient,” Jobs added about mouse manipulation.
The mouse combines with a graphical user interface that allows people to click on icons and visuals on the computer, including windows and drag-and-drop menus. It’s “the ultimate step in making it possible for people with no special training to use computers,” Wired said.
Ironically, Apple’s popularization of touch screen technology on iPhones and iPads may cause computer mice to go into oblivion.
“Computer self-sufficiency will belong to Apple and IBM, this prediction is only partially correct.” (Photo: Business Insider)
In 1985, Jobs predicted that there would be only a few computer companies making hardware and a lot of businesses making software.
“The self-sufficiency of computers will belong to Apple and IBM,” Jobs said. “I don’t think there are many companies in third or fourth place, companies in sixth or seventh place are much rarer. I think innovation happens often in the areas of software, not hardware.”
However, this prediction is only partially correct. Microsoft used to hold the number one position in the software market, so much so that the company had to participate in an antitrust investigation by the US government in 1998.
Today, Apple’s macOS software still competes with Microsoft’s Windows and Google’s Chrome OS. In terms of phones, Apple’s iOS competes with Google’s Android operating system. Meanwhile, hardware brands such as Samsung, Dell, Lenovo, Acer and HP are all vying for market share in countries around the world.